Vaccines have come: What comes after global vaccination
Hopefully, we are going to receive many vaccines for Covid-19 by the end of 2021 but we have to agree that it is not the termination of all things that need to be prepared for conquering this malicious virus. Maybe the most important thing that we have to do is keep testing these vaccines on and off and health care or different companies must not give up on examining the produced ones.
Many vaccines being available in the markets, some observers are asking if the need for testing is reduced. What are the consequences of test reductions in diagnostic enterprises and laboratories? We have had research on the testing volumes in the US and other European countries. We expanded three directional scenarios for each market: a baseline case, a more optimistic outlook that requires less experimentation, and a more pessimistic outlook that needs more experimentation. The result for these scenarios is that test demand is about to pursue the resembling path in the United States and other European countries, with peak demand which is going to happen at the end of 2021 and the initial months of 2022.
Even though it is estimated that the number of trials will decrease after 2021, as the malady progresses to a more indigenous stage, we predict that there will be a continuing need for trials in 2023 and 2024.
Five reasons for experimenting Vaccines and related usages
Even if the ongoing and potential vaccines are highly affirmed, they will still need to be tested for COVID-19 for five reasons minimum:
Recognition and triage:
The previous leap in certified cases in some countries increases the number of reasons to continue using the installed diagnostic tool test stand. These contain recognition and evaluating patients for medical replications which will admonish clinical health care, and beholding the level of diseases in the hospitalized population.
In different societies, examining will always be a part of a large strategy to vision the propagation and augmentation of Covid-19 to aid vast groups which contain tracing and monitoring tests.
Two priorities must be considered important. One is to screen all public areas such as airports, schools, and universities to give people a sense of safety without any fear. The second is to screen the accumulation of living spots such as those places that have a bad reputation of contaminating different diseases. For instance, hospitals or nursing homes…etc.
Testing and supervision of the employer’s contract workplace:
Certain employers must be tested or monitored because they head back to their homes and due to their hazardous job, they might be contaminated by the virus and can infect others as well. Therefore, firms must decide whether they should make their employers work online via the internet or not. These decisions must be based on the risk-taking task that they are doing.
As vaccines are being delivered to more and more people each day and resume their regular activities, we must perform immunoassays by using antibodies or different technology. Also monitoring the overall immunity by sampling the general population and addressing private household concerns about the status of each person’s immunity is required.
The main factors for test requests
Four factors have significant roles over demands for COVID Vaccines:
The first one is that the Coronavirus will change from a vast pandemic to endemic phases. For instance, nowadays we can observe many Covid-19 viruses that are mutated. Many of them come from Brazil, South Africa, or the UK which are more complex than the main virus and their fatalities and infection rates will rise so as the demands for the test.
The second factor is the efficacy of the vaccines that have been made by now or even those that will be produced in the future. Nobody is sure how long will be the immunity and the exact duration of revealed antibodies due to different Covid vaccines. We assume that this factor will have the most effect on test demands.
The third one is the effect of the medicines. Using treatments and different drugs may have a variety of side effects. Hence many people might not take the risk to consume these medications and choose to wear a mask and keep the social distance and demand for tests.
The fourth factor is the rules and the regulations of governments. Some countries might be pessimistic towards the quality of vaccines and treatments so they keep supporting tests. For example, for traveling abroad or passenger reception, administrations may not accept those people who are vaccinated. And still insist on testing them to make sure if they are contaminated or not.
Three straightforward scenarios for requesting
Orientation during the Coronavirus acme includes tackling the complex interference of some factors such as epidemic propagation, medical responses, government preparations, special effect sectors, and corporate activities. We have previously said that world leaders need some scenario-centered approaches for creating precise outcomes and expanding action plans. All these scenarios are supposed to provide a fuselage for contemplating superior levels of many doubts that will likely stay a principle path for decision-makers. These three scenarios are indicated below:
Basic Vaccines case:
In this case, we presume that vaccination and treatment are both successful. Yet, production and supply restrictions limit the full coverage and absorption at least by the end of 2021 or the beginning of 2022 along with general inquietude about safety in a long term. Both premature and false euphoria in 2021 due to “cure”, mixed with general Corona exhaustion, will be led to a reduction in alleviation attempts, especially for using masks and keeping distance from other people in society in all markets and unfortunately again by the end of 2022 the epidemic might begin but this time with a greater revival in monopolized geography.
Fewer applicants for test:
If we are optimistic, by vaccinating and different treatments many adults will be healthy and we can prevent the death of plenty of people all around the world. Production and supply increase to encounter the growing request for vaccination. Discount strategies continue to assert the most vulnerable professions and social institutions such as school re-opening but with selections and health security.
Request for more tests:
In a worse but less likely case, vaccination and treatment will have some problems of being completely successful. We could say that generally people are still on some kind of hesitation about the advantages of vaccination, and will limit the market absorption. Virus mutations adversely affect the effectiveness of the vaccines also keeping your distance from other people still lingers in daily activities, and local confinement becomes a principle again. On the other hand, a multitude of people would want to be tested for Coronavirus.
Even if we suppose that the vaccination is going to work out successfully, our future will be full of suspicions. All the doctors and nurses must become top ready to react to any alternation in the virus and also any increasing or decreasing for test demanding. Moreover, due to this pandemic, the need for obtaining more and more talented laboratory technicians is augmenting so we have to raise our capacity and capability for the patient needs.
Article by: Amir Masoud Navidi
Adapted from: BCG.